El Niño Ski Season 2026/27: Where the Snow Will Actually Fall
NOAA puts El Niño at 96% through February 2027. That is very good news for Tahoe and the Alps, and genuinely bad news for Whistler.
The short version
A strong El Niño is in place for winter 2026/27. NOAA gives it a 96% chance of persisting through February 2027. El Niño does not make a winter good or bad on its own — it moves the storm track south. That creates clear winners and clear losers, and which one you get depends entirely on where you book.
The other thing it changes is when. El Niño winters typically open mild and storm-starved, then finish colder and snowier. If you normally book early December, this is the year to move that trip to February or March.
Worth knowing: the La Niña pattern that shaped 2025/26 has ended. A lot of ski forecast content still online was written for that pattern and points in exactly the wrong direction. If an article is telling you the Pacific Northwest is the safe bet this year, it is a season out of date.
Region by region
Ranked from best odds to worst.
Lake Tahoe & the Sierra
+20-30% snowfallThe single biggest winner of this pattern. El Niño drives the subtropical jet straight into California, and Tahoe, Mammoth and Brian Head all sit in the favoured zone. If you have been waiting for a Sierra season, this is it.
Book it. Target February and March.
The Alps
Above normal, France to western AustriaForecasters favour above-normal snowfall across the core of the Alps, covering Val d’Isère, Tignes, Chamonix, the Three Valleys, Zermatt and the Arlberg. The Dolomites sit at the eastern edge of the signal, so good odds with slightly less certainty. Scandinavia is also favoured, Norway in particular.
Strong season. Favour high-altitude resorts early on.
Best Ski Resorts in EuropeColorado & the Southern Rockies
Slightly above average at elevationA recovery season after a poor 2025/26. Statewide snowfall is projected slightly above average at higher elevations, and the state’s southern areas are favoured most, which puts Telluride and the San Juans ahead of the northern resorts.
Prioritise upper-mountain terrain and southern resorts.
Best Ski Resorts in ColoradoEast Coast
Variable, not reliably goodThe hardest region to call. Temperatures favour above normal across New England and the Mid-Atlantic at 50-60%+ probability. Against that, high terrain in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine has an elevated chance of exceeding normal snowfall, and strong El Niños statistically produce more Nor’easters — storms that can drop 2-3 feet in one cycle.
Stay above 4,000ft. Book flexible and chase storm cycles.
Best East Coast Ski ResortsPacific Northwest & Western Canada
Warm and dry signalThe clearest warm signal in NOAA’s outlook sits over the PNW and northern Rockies, with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation favoured through winter. That covers coastal British Columbia directly, Whistler included. The risk is not no snow, it is warmer, wetter storms that leave lower terrain unreliable.
Highest risk region. Buy refundable lodging.
Best Ski Resorts in Canada⚠️ Avoid This Mistake
Booking early December because you always do. In an El Niño winter that is the single weakest window. The pattern loads toward the back half of the season, so the same money buys materially better conditions in late January, February or March. If your dates are fixed to the holidays, book high — glacier and upper-mountain terrain such as Zermatt, Val d'Isère or Sölden holds snow when valley runs do not.
What else changed for 2026/27
Pass prices went up
- • Ikon Pass $1,399 (up $70), Base $949, Session from $299
- • Epic Pass $1,089 (up $38)
- • New: Epic costs $869 if you are 13-30 — a $220 saving
- • Ikon added Snowriver (MI), Lutsen (MN) and Granite Peak (WI); Ikon Base now gets unlimited Arapahoe Basin
New direct flights
- • Austin → Bozeman, daily from Dec 19
- • San Francisco → Sapporo, from Dec 11 (Niseko, Furano, Rusutsu)
- • Portland → Steamboat, Thu & Sat from Feb 11
- • Boston → Jackson Hole, Saturdays from Feb 13
📊 GetHotelDeals Data Insight
The two-halves pattern has a price consequence. Early-season weeks are priced as peak because of the holidays, not because of snow quality. In an El Niño year that inverts the usual value logic: the second week of January and the last week of March are typically 30-60% cheaper than Christmas or mid-February, and in this pattern they also carry better snow odds. That is a rare case where the cheap window and the good window are the same window.
Ready to book the back half of the season?
Compare live prices across top booking sites for any resort in this forecast.
Search Ski Hotels💡 Insider Tip from Our Editors
Buy the refundable rate this year. El Niño seasons are less predictable than average, not more, and the useful forecast horizon for a specific resort is about 10 days. Paying 10-15% more for free cancellation buys you the option to move a trip from a dud week to a storm cycle. In a normal winter that is a luxury; in this pattern it is the highest-value 10% you will spend.
Frequently Asked Questions: El Niño Ski Season 2026/27
Is El Niño good or bad for skiing in 2026/27?
Both, depending where you go. El Niño pushes the storm track south, which favours California, the southern Rockies and the Alps while drying out the Pacific Northwest. NOAA gives a 96% chance of El Niño conditions persisting through February 2027, so this is a pattern worth planning around rather than hoping past.
Where will the most snow fall this season?
Lake Tahoe, Mammoth and Brian Head are forecast to see 20-30% more snowfall than normal, the strongest signal anywhere. The core of the Alps from France through western Austria is also favoured for above-normal snowfall, as is Scandinavia and Norway in particular.
Which regions should I avoid?
The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies carry the clearest warm signal, with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation favoured through winter. That includes coastal British Columbia and Whistler. It does not mean no snow, but warmer, wetter storms make lower-elevation terrain unreliable, so favour the high alpine and book refundable.
When should I book a ski trip in an El Niño winter?
Later than usual. These winters typically deliver a mild, storm-starved start followed by a colder, snowier finish, so late January through March carries better odds than early December. The second week of January and the last week of March are also the cheapest weeks of the season, which is an unusually favourable overlap.
How much do the Epic and Ikon passes cost for 2026/27?
The Ikon Pass is $1,399, Ikon Base is $949, and Session Passes start at $299. The Epic Pass is $1,089 — but a new discount for skiers and snowboarders aged 13 to 30 brings it down to $869, which is the single biggest pass saving available this season.